This chart from the CPUC’s July report breaks out the proportion of the state’s three big utilities’ ​“revenue requirement,” or how much money they must bring in from ratepayers to cover their costs. The biggest increases are coming from distribution-grid investments, primarily driven by PG&E’s program aimed at burying power lines, clearing vegetation, and installing technology to reduce wildfire risks.

According to reporting from The Sacramento Bee citing anonymous sources familiar with the negotiations, earlier versions of the affordability package included proposals to reduce broader grid expansion costs via ​“securitization” — financing some portion of utility spending through debt, rather than by passing them on to ratepayers.

But those components, which could reduce the profits that utilities earn for investments in their capital infrastructure, were dropped from the bill, the Bee reported last week.

With the potential savings from the wildfire-mitigation cost controls and broader energy cost analysis as yet unclear, the only immediate savings from the legislative package would come from cuts to programs that serve ​“people who don’t have political power,” said Beckie Menten, senior regulatory and policy specialist at the nonprofit Building Decarbonization Coalition.

“We’re really supportive of solutions that address affordability,” she said. But ​“what we’re seeing on the table for the most part are pretty reactive and not very comprehensive of our systemic solutions.”

On the chopping block: School HVAC retrofits and solar and batteries for low-income residents 

AB 3121 proposes to provide utility customers with rebates by clawing back unspent and ​“unencumbered” funds from three programs: California Schools Healthy Air, Plumbing, and Efficiency (CalSHAPE); the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP); and Solar on Multifamily Affordable Housing (SOMAH).

The CalSHAPE program, administered by the California Energy Commission, was created by a law passed during the Covid pandemic to help schools repair HVAC systems to improve health, and it has disbursed 646 grants totaling $421 million in funding for the ventilation upgrades.

Roughly $250 million remains in the program, and many schools were in the process of applying for funding, said Stephanie Seidmon, program director of nonprofit advocacy group Undaunted K12. But AB 3121 would retroactively set the deadline for those applications at July 1, 2024, and return any funds not disbursed to utility ratepayers.

But the one-time rebates per customer that would result aren’t worth the loss of funding for schools that need the money to improve air-conditioning and ventilation systems, Seidmon contended. ​“It’s really important for low-income schools that can’t raise a bond measure to upgrade their HVAC systems, or schools facing these wildfire and heat risks,” she said.

Much of CalSHAPE’s remaining $250 million in funding ​“is for schools that are replacing their HVAC as we’re going to be facing wildfires this fall,” said NRDC’s Bergeson. ​“It’s crazy to me we’d be taking away that money, especially when many of these schools are in disadvantaged communities and were depending on this.”

The SGIP program provides incentives for low-income customers to purchase batteries to provide backup power during power outages. In a March decision, the CPUC allocated $280 million to the program’s current grant cycle, and lawmakers pledged in a 2022 budget and climate law, AB 209, to provide $350 million to the program over the next several years.

Returning unspent portions of those funds to utilities would provide a minimal one-off rebate to individual customers at the cost of undermining a program that ​“helps both rural and disadvantaged communities” obtain batteries that are increasingly valuable in a state experiencing heat- and wildfire-driven grid emergencies, said Edson Perez, California policy lead for clean energy industry trade group Advanced Energy United.

The batteries installed through the program also help store solar power for use in evenings, when grid power tends to be dirtier and more expensive, which ​“helps the grid as a whole,” he said. A May report to the CPUC found that batteries installed through SGIP have reduced utility costs by roughly $27 million, primarily during a September 2022 heat wave that threatened to overwhelm California’s grid.

The SOMAH program has a budget of $100 million and a legislatively mandated goal of installing 300 megawatts of solar by 2032, and is ​“California’s landmark program for multifamily affordable housing access to affordable solar and affordable storage,” said Steve Campbell, western regulatory director for nonprofit Vote Solar.

AB 3121 doesn’t call for reclaiming the entirety of that funding stream. But it would require the CPUC to credit ​“no more than 1/2 of the program funds that are unencumbered as of January 1, 2025,” back to utilities to return to customers as rebates.

SOMAH was created in 2019 and saw a significant slowdown during the Covid pandemic, Campbell said. In the past year, however, applications and projects have picked up steam. 

“When a low-income program starts to work again is the worst time to pull the rug out from underneath it,” he said.