Tesla (TSLA) is expected to have tough quarter for deliveries again

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Tesla (TSLA) is again expected to have a difficult quarter for electric vehicle deliveries as estimates are going down.

Last quarter was a rough one for Tesla. The automaker delivered 386,810 vehicles – down 20% quarter-over-quarter and 8.5% year-over-year.

Tesla is so important to the electric vehicle industry that the results dragged the entire EV sales down, especially in the US.

The automaker had some real problems that affected production, like the ramp-up of the new Model 3 at the Fremont factory and shutdowns due to supply chain issues at Gigafactory Berlin.

However, Tesla is also believed to have some demand issues, as these production issues can’t explain the entire 46,000-vehicle discrepancy between production and deliveries last quarter.

Now, the automaker is about to conclude its second quarter, and all eyes are on the upcoming results next week.

Tesla Q2 expectations

The Wall Street estimate consensus is at 450,000 deliveries, which is down from the 466,000 vehicles Tesla delivered during the same period last year.

That alone would be bad, but things could get worse.

Like last quarter, the estimates are expected to go down throughout the week as analysts adjust their expectations.

The more recent estimates from analysts are already significantly below the 450,000 consensus, which should bring it down by the end of the week.

Europe seems to be a problem for Tesla this year. According to registration trackers, Tesla is more than 60,000 deliveries off from its record year in 2023 so far in 2024:

With most of the difference happening over the last few months, Q2 could prove to make it a difficult quarter for Tesla in Europe.

China is still Tesla’s most important market and things are looking up there for the automaker over the last month – thanks to strong new incentives, like reduced interest rates.

Data is more opaque in the US. Tesla has also implemented incentives there, and more recently, the Model 3 Long Range getting access to the federal tax credit could have helped close the gap.

Electrek’s Take

We get a lot of news about EV sales crashing lately, but to be fair, it was mostly due to Tesla’s performance in Q1. The automaker is so critical to global EV sales, and especially US EV sales, that a bad quarter affects the entire industry.

It is disappointing to see that we are likely going to have another quarter down year-over-year in deliveries, especially considering that the automaker claimed to have a record number of vehicles in transit at the end of last quarter.

I would have thought that it would have easily helped Tesla beat last year’s 466,000 deliveries in Q2, but it doesn’t sound like it.

What do you think? Where do you think Tesla will land in terms of deliveries in Q2? Let us know in the comment section below.

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